Mathematical analysis of appearance probability of blackouts.
Kuznetsov P., Judin A., Maslo S., Kliukovkin V.
This article describes the problem of blackouts or cascade malfunctions which appears in electrical networks. There were analyzed blackout’s data on the two power lines according to the collected information and there was chosen a model for the next profound analysis of their expansion laws. There is shown a tendency for their amount increase. There was developed an algorithm for standard blackout duration which reason can be a single initiating event. There was also held an analysis of power losses in two power grids for the long term time interval using scaled window variance method. There are shown dependencies which reveal the obedience of blackout’s behavior according to the power law. Keywords: blackout, mathematical model, outage analysis, Minitab, statistical analysis, emergency mode in power grid.
